Ryanair unveiled on September 17, 2026 a $1.6 billion investment plan aimed at doubling its traffic across Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania over the next five years. The announcement comes shortly after airBaltic entered Chapter 11 protection in the United States and while the Latvian carrier is preparing a substantial fleet reduction.
Up to 11 million annual seats by 2031
Ryanair says it could offer up to 11 million seats a year across the Baltic states by 2031. The airline also wants to increase the number of aircraft based in the region from seven to 16. It presents the plan as a potential $1.6 billion investment that could support new routes and several thousand direct and indirect jobs.
The pace and scale of the expansion will depend on airport and government cost conditions. Ryanair is pressing in particular for lower aviation taxes and airport charges.
Riga gains capacity while Tallinn and Vilnius lose some
For winter 2026, Ryanair plans two based aircraft in Riga, 16 routes and a 6% capacity increase, equivalent to roughly 40,000 additional seats. Ten routes are set to receive more frequencies, including Alicante, Barcelona and Milan Bergamo.
By contrast, the carrier says it will cut winter capacity in Estonia and Lithuania by 25%, or around 550,000 seats, and redeploy aircraft to markets it considers more competitive, including Poland, Slovakia, Italy and Sweden.
airBaltic reshapes the regional balance
The move comes as airBaltic undertakes a major restructuring. The Latvian airline, currently under Chapter 11 protection, plans to reduce its fleet from 54 to 36 aircraft by the end of 2026. Ryanair has made clear that it sees an opportunity to strengthen its position as airBaltic contracts.
The proposal therefore marks a potentially significant shift in the Baltic aviation market. It is not, however, a fully committed investment yet: Ryanair says the growth plan depends on the future cost of access to each market.
Sources
Ryanair, September 17, 2026; Reuters, September 17, 2026.
Related: Ryanair trims traffic target as fuel prices rise, for wider context on the airline’s growth strategy and constraints.
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