Ryanair warns European airfares could rise by up to 20% in 2027

Air travel across Europe could become substantially more expensive in 2027. Speaking in Brussels on 20 October, Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary warned that fares across the region might rise by 10 to 20% over the next twelve months. This was a forecast for the European market, not an announcement that Ryanair will raise every ticket price by 20%. The more significant warning concerns what happens when airlines lose the protection of fuel contracts agreed before the latest surge in costs.

Ryanair has locked in prices for much of its fuel through March 2027, shielding it from some of the recent increase. Once that protection runs down, the carrier will face greater exposure to market prices, just as capacity cuts and consolidation could leave fewer seats available across Europe.

Why spring 2027 matters

Airlines often hedge fuel purchases, arranging prices in advance for part of their future requirements. Those contracts cushion sudden market increases, but only until the agreed volumes and periods run out. Fresh purchases then reflect the prevailing market.

O’Leary said Ryanair had hedged roughly 80% of its fuel at $67 a barrel through March 2027. For the following period, only about 15% was covered, at $85 a barrel. He linked the sharp rise in jet fuel prices to the conflict in the Middle East, arguing that airlines would face much higher bills once their existing protection faded.

O’Leary also expects capacity to tighten as financially weaker airlines struggle and consolidation reshapes the European market. Fewer seats on popular routes could put upward pressure on fares even where several carriers continue to compete.

What it means for passengers

A potential 20% increase in European fares does not mean every ticket will cost exactly one fifth more. Prices vary by route, season, competition and booking date. Nor is O’Leary’s projection a confirmed fare increase: how close the market comes to his estimate will depend on fuel prices, capacity and demand in the months ahead.

Ryanair has already announced the removal of 20 Belgian routes and approximately 1.1 million winter seats, blaming a planned increase in the country’s aviation tax. AeroSillage has reported separately on those route cuts. They illustrate how higher costs can affect not just ticket prices but also the destinations an airline chooses to serve.

Passengers planning trips in 2027 will need to watch not only ticket prices but also the frequency and availability of flights on their chosen routes. Higher fuel costs coupled with fewer seats could affect some destinations much more sharply than others.

Sources: Reuters, Michael O’Leary’s remarks on 20 October 2026; The Guardian, 20 October 2026.