Book now or wait? For travellers already planning 2027 holidays, the question is becoming more concrete as oil and jet-fuel prices again put pressure on airline costs.
On September 10, Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary warned that materially higher fares were possible in 2027 if oil remained expensive. The comment matters because Ryanair carries more than 200 million passengers a year and is one of Europe’s clearest indicators of pricing pressure.
Why fuel costs are putting renewed pressure on fares
Fuel is one of the largest airline operating expenses. IATA estimates cited in the 2026 outlook put average jet fuel around $152 a barrel, nearly 70% above 2025, with fuel potentially representing 31.4% of airline operating costs versus 25.4% a year earlier.
IATA had already estimated that the global airline fuel bill could rise by close to $100 billion compared with 2025.
By September 14, Brent crude was trading around $108 a barrel after renewed attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and continued tension around major Middle Eastern export routes.
That does not mean every ticket rises by the same percentage, but it reduces airlines’ ability to absorb cost shocks.
Ryanair has already hedged roughly 80% of its fuel needs through March 2027 at around $67 a barrel, giving it unusually strong protection against the current market.
Even so, it has trimmed part of its programme and slightly reduced its annual traffic target from 216 million to 214 million passengers.
If one of Europe’s best-hedged airlines is already adjusting capacity, carriers with less protection may face a more difficult choice between reducing flying, accepting lower margins or raising fares.
Capacity, hedging and competition determine airline exposure
Fuel is not the only mechanism. When airlines cut schedules, fewer seats remain on sale. If demand stays strong, that lower capacity can raise average fares independently of any explicit fuel surcharge.
Passengers can therefore face a double effect: higher airline costs and fewer seats.
Fuel-hedging policies vary widely. Some carriers lock in a large share of future needs months in advance; others remain more exposed to spot prices in the hope of benefiting from future declines.
Two airlines flying the same route can therefore have very different fuel costs at the same moment.
Low-cost carriers often have tight cost structures, high load factors and sophisticated hedging policies. Those characteristics can help them withstand a fuel shock better than some full-service rivals.
But their model also depends on volume and very low promotional fares. A prolonged increase in fuel costs could therefore reduce the number of ultra-cheap seats even if the headline €20 or £20 fare does not disappear entirely.
Will ultra-cheap fares disappear?
Probably not. Airlines will continue to use low headline fares to stimulate weak flights and off-peak demand.
The more realistic risk is that those fares become rarer on busy routes while the average amount actually paid rises.
Should you book now, and which routes are most exposed?
If your trip is certain, dates are fixed and the route is usually busy: school holidays, peak summer, long weekends: early booking can make sense when the current fare already looks reasonable.
Buying a completely inflexible ticket very early purely out of fear is less attractive. Airlines still reprice continuously according to demand, competition and promotions.
The practical approach is to monitor the route and book when the fare is already acceptable for your dates and conditions.
Routes with little competition are particularly vulnerable because one capacity cut can remove a large share of available seats.
High-demand leisure markets around the Mediterranean, island routes and some long-haul destinations are also sensitive because fuel is a larger component of the total trip cost.
The longer the flight, the more fuel it burns. Long-haul carriers can offset part of the shock through Business and Premium cabins and ancillary revenue, but sustained high fuel prices ultimately put pressure on pricing.
2027 remains uncertain: gradual inflation is the likelier scenario
O’Leary’s warning is not a forecast carved in stone. Oil can move rapidly in both directions.
Geopolitical de-escalation, restored production or weaker global demand could bring prices down. Further disruption in the Middle East could keep jet fuel elevated into 2027.
The most plausible scenario is not every fare jumping on January 1. It is a gradual shift: fewer deep promotions, more seats sold at mid-range prices, higher ancillary charges and a rising average ticket.
For a trip that is certain and already available at a sensible fare, waiting solely in the hope of a major price drop has become a riskier bet than it was a few months ago.
Main sources
Reuters, September 10 and 13, 2026; Reuters on Ryanair capacity; IATA Global Outlook for Air Transport 2026; IATA fuel-cost analysis.
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